Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-01

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-21) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-21 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-21 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-21 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-21 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-21 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-21)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-21) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 685 (614 – 750) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (12 – 30)
Algeria 163 (137 – 186) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -52 (44 – -16)
Argentina 731 (655 – 800) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 25)
Armenia 373 (336 – 403) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (15 – 430)
Australia 15 (6 – 21) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 17 (4.5 – -9)
Austria 37 (24 – 46) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -100 (12 – -9.8)
Azerbaijan 181 (154 – 201) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (10 – 95)
Bahrain 309 (265 – 348) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 43 (17 – -98)
Bangladesh 1895 (1721 – 2057) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (18 – 35)
Belarus 965 (878 – 1042) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 86 (33 – -140)
Belgium 214 (184 – 239) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -42 (82 – -17)
Benin 13 (6 – 20) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 7.4 (3.2 – -24)
Bolivia 527 (482 – 570) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (9.6 – 21)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 19 (10 – 27) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 54 (6.4 – -8.4)
Brazil 22735 (20500 – 25360) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (15 – 19)
Bulgaria 18 (9 – 25) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -10 (33 – -4.5)
Cameroon 179 (156 – 203) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -48 (42 – -15)
Canada 1007 (927 – 1078) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -140 (93 – -41)
Central African Republic 63 (47 – 76) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 12 (6.1 – 97)
Chad 22 (13 – 30) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -45 (11 – -7.1)
Chile 4386 (4065 – 4674) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (17 – 28)
China 7 (2 – 11) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 33 (3.9 – -5.2)
Colombia 1196 (1082 – 1341) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 13 (10 – 17)
Cote dIvoire 69 (52 – 86) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 14 (6.7 – -490)
Croatia 6 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.2 – 2.3) 14 (2 – -2.8)
Cuba 16 (8 – 23) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 14 (4.5 – -12)
Czechia 52 (36 – 65) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -37 (19 – -9.6)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 117 (96 – 134) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 57 (15 – -30)
Denmark 53 (40 – 66) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -59 (17 – -11)
Djibouti 137 (114 – 156) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 92 (17 – -27)
Dominican Republic 387 (341 – 437) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (16 – -770)
Ecuador 355 (315 – 390) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -14 (-24 – -10)
Egypt 1028 (896 – 1143) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 19)
El Salvador 102 (82 – 118) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (9.5 – -94)
Equatorial Guinea 47 (32 – 59) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) -90 (12 – -9.1)
Estonia 10 (3 – 16) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 14 (3.7 – -7.3)
Ethiopia 81 (62 – 96) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 7.9 (5 – 19)
Finland 41 (27 – 52) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 110 (9.7 – -12)
France 985 (788 – 1164) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.6) 6.7 (5.5 – 8.4)
Gabon 117 (93 – 137) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 23 (10 – -75)
Germany 498 (442 – 557) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -76 (67 – -24)
Ghana 162 (137 – 184) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 46 (15 – -44)
Greece 9 (2 – 14) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) 95 (4.6 – -5.1)
Guatemala 233 (205 – 265) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 40 (14 – -49)
Guinea 80 (62 – 97) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 150 (14 – -18)
Guinea Bissau 23 (13 – 31) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -54 (10 – -7.5)
Haiti 142 (117 – 162) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 10 (6.8 – 23)
Honduras 194 (167 – 217) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 51 (16 – -40)
Hungary 21 (12 – 29) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -15 (23 – -5.5)
Iceland 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.4 (0.3 – 4.1) 2.3 (1 – -4.2)
India 7508 (6947 – 8110) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (17 – 24)
Indonesia 646 (580 – 699) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 80 (28 – -98)
Iran 2309 (2115 – 2487) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 51 (30 – 160)
Iraq 279 (249 – 308) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 10 (7.4 – 18)
Ireland 57 (43 – 70) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -22 (38 – -8.8)
Israel 46 (30 – 59) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.8) 6.1 (3.7 – 16)
Italy 527 (475 – 579) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -36 (-470 – -19)
Japan 45 (30 – 56) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 45 (9.2 – -15)
Kazakhstan 387 (345 – 438) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (13 – 54)
Kenya 102 (82 – 120) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 10 (6.3 – 29)
Kosovo 8 (2 – 12) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) -24 (6.7 – -4.2)
Kuwait 879 (794 – 963) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) -3400 (47 – -47)
Kyrgyzstan 54 (37 – 68) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 16 (6.7 – -44)
Latvia 8 (1 – 13) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.6) 150 (3.9 – -4.3)
Lebanon 17 (9 – 24) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -15 (17 – -5.2)
Lithuania 11 (4 – 17) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -68 (6.1 – -5.3)
Luxembourg 7 (1 – 12) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.7) -43 (4.4 – -3.7)
Madagascar 42 (29 – 53) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (6.9 – -29)
Malawi 36 (19 – 48) Increasing 1.8 (1.3 – 2.4) 3.9 (2.5 – 8.7)
Malaysia 81 (60 – 97) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.3) 17 (7.7 – -86)
Maldives 53 (40 – 65) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 17 (7.2 – -45)
Mali 39 (25 – 51) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 15 (6 – -33)
Mauritania 42 (28 – 53) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 12 (5.5 – -92)
Mexico 3289 (3052 – 3534) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (19 – 31)
Moldova 165 (140 – 186) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 74 (17 – -33)
Mongolia 8 (2 – 12) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 2) 54 (3.1 – -3.5)
Morocco 58 (41 – 69) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -15 (420 – -7.6)
Nepal 120 (96 – 141) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7.2 (5 – 13)
Netherlands 181 (152 – 207) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 65 (18 – -38)
New Zealand 6 (0 – 12) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.3 – 3.3) 3.9 (1.4 – -4.4)
Niger 9 (0 – 18) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.8) 200 (3.4 – -3.5)
Nigeria 332 (298 – 364) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (15 – 340)
North Macedonia 34 (21 – 44) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 22 (6.7 – -16)
Norway 20 (11 – 29) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 24 (5.7 – -10)
Oman 483 (418 – 552) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (9.9 – 23)
Pakistan 2268 (2038 – 2489) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 32 (21 – 62)
Palestine 8 (2 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.9) 29 (3.5 – -4.7)
Panama 357 (315 – 409) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.6 (6.6 – 13)
Paraguay 18 (10 – 25) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 13 (4.2 – -13)
Peru 5861 (5227 – 6433) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 15 (13 – 18)
Philippines 497 (411 – 575) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 8 (6.3 – 11)
Poland 397 (352 – 440) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 66 (23 – -77)
Portugal 271 (225 – 304) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (14 – 16000)
Puerto Rico 91 (71 – 106) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 30 (11 – -38)
Qatar 1962 (1793 – 2149) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 24 (18 – 36)
Romania 187 (158 – 212) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 68 (18 – -37)
Russia 9169 (8603 – 9768) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 110 (59 – 9500)
Saudi Arabia 2028 (1913 – 2141) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -34 (-60 – -24)
Senegal 82 (66 – 99) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 550 (16 – -16)
Serbia 48 (35 – 60) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -14 (910 – -7)
Sierra Leone 31 (20 – 42) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 40 (7.8 – -13)
Singapore 513 (463 – 569) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 140 (32 – -58)
Slovakia 6 (1 – 12) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.2) 7.2 (2.2 – -5.3)
Somalia 45 (33 – 57) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 29 (7.8 – -16)
South Africa 1436 (1295 – 1604) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 20)
South Korea 42 (28 – 54) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.8 (4.7 – 56)
South Sudan 82 (68 – 98) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 7.7 (4.8 – 20)
Spain 701 (621 – 768) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 30 (18 – 91)
Sri Lanka 74 (55 – 89) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 7.4 (4.6 – 18)
Sudan 185 (161 – 208) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -130 (31 – -21)
Sweden 598 (527 – 667) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (17 – 86)
Switzerland 20 (12 – 28) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -28 (11 – -6.2)
Tajikistan 178 (155 – 203) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 430 (22 – -25)
Thailand 9 (3 – 14) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.8 – 2.4) 4.9 (2.2 – -15)
Tunisia 7 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.6 – 2.6) 5.1 (2 – -9)
Turkey 1120 (1017 – 1227) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 140 (32 – -60)
Uganda 33 (23 – 43) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.7) 7.9 (4.1 – 75)
Ukraine 408 (358 – 453) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 61 (22 – -78)
United Arab Emirates 793 (730 – 858) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -230 (65 – -41)
United Kingdom 2437 (2294 – 2573) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) 200 (50 – -99)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (4 – 15) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.5 (30 – -3.7)
United States of America 22442 (20923 – 24090) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 100 (57 – 560)
Uzbekistan 64 (48 – 80) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 68 (11 – -17)
Venezuela 65 (50 – 79) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -70 (19 – -12)
Zambia 33 (21 – 42) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -20 (18 – -6.5)
Zimbabwe 21 (11 – 30) Increasing 1.8 (1.1 – 2.4) 4.2 (2.5 – 14)