Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-01

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-21) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-21 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-21 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-21 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-21 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-21 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-21)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-21) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	685 (614 – 750)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (12 – 30)
Algeria	163 (137 – 186)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-52 (44 – -16)
Argentina	731 (655 – 800)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (11 – 25)
Armenia	373 (336 – 403)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	29 (15 – 430)
Australia	15 (6 – 21)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.6)	17 (4.5 – -9)
Austria	37 (24 – 46)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.2)	-100 (12 – -9.8)
Azerbaijan	181 (154 – 201)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (10 – 95)
Bahrain	309 (265 – 348)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	43 (17 – -98)
Bangladesh	1895 (1721 – 2057)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (18 – 35)
Belarus	965 (878 – 1042)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	86 (33 – -140)
Belgium	214 (184 – 239)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-42 (82 – -17)
Benin	13 (6 – 20)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.8)	7.4 (3.2 – -24)
Bolivia	527 (482 – 570)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (9.6 – 21)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	19 (10 – 27)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.4)	54 (6.4 – -8.4)
Brazil	22735 (20500 – 25360)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (15 – 19)
Bulgaria	18 (9 – 25)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1)	-10 (33 – -4.5)
Cameroon	179 (156 – 203)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-48 (42 – -15)
Canada	1007 (927 – 1078)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-140 (93 – -41)
Central African Republic	63 (47 – 76)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.5)	12 (6.1 – 97)
Chad	22 (13 – 30)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.2)	-45 (11 – -7.1)
Chile	4386 (4065 – 4674)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	21 (17 – 28)
China	7 (2 – 11)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.6)	33 (3.9 – -5.2)
Colombia	1196 (1082 – 1341)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	13 (10 – 17)
Cote dIvoire	69 (52 – 86)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	14 (6.7 – -490)
Croatia	6 (0 – 15)	Unsure	1.2 (0.2 – 2.3)	14 (2 – -2.8)
Cuba	16 (8 – 23)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.6)	14 (4.5 – -12)
Czechia	52 (36 – 65)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-37 (19 – -9.6)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	117 (96 – 134)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	57 (15 – -30)
Denmark	53 (40 – 66)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-59 (17 – -11)
Djibouti	137 (114 – 156)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	92 (17 – -27)
Dominican Republic	387 (341 – 437)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	32 (16 – -770)
Ecuador	355 (315 – 390)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.8 – 0.9)	-14 (-24 – -10)
Egypt	1028 (896 – 1143)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (11 – 19)
El Salvador	102 (82 – 118)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	21 (9.5 – -94)
Equatorial Guinea	47 (32 – 59)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	-90 (12 – -9.1)
Estonia	10 (3 – 16)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.8)	14 (3.7 – -7.3)
Ethiopia	81 (62 – 96)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.6)	7.9 (5 – 19)
Finland	41 (27 – 52)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	110 (9.7 – -12)
France	985 (788 – 1164)	Increasing	1.4 (1.3 – 1.6)	6.7 (5.5 – 8.4)
Gabon	117 (93 – 137)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	23 (10 – -75)
Germany	498 (442 – 557)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-76 (67 – -24)
Ghana	162 (137 – 184)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	46 (15 – -44)
Greece	9 (2 – 14)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.5)	95 (4.6 – -5.1)
Guatemala	233 (205 – 265)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	40 (14 – -49)
Guinea	80 (62 – 97)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	150 (14 – -18)
Guinea Bissau	23 (13 – 31)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-54 (10 – -7.5)
Haiti	142 (117 – 162)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	10 (6.8 – 23)
Honduras	194 (167 – 217)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	51 (16 – -40)
Hungary	21 (12 – 29)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1.1)	-15 (23 – -5.5)
Iceland	6 (0 – 15)	Likely increasing	2.4 (0.3 – 4.1)	2.3 (1 – -4.2)
India	7508 (6947 – 8110)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	20 (17 – 24)
Indonesia	646 (580 – 699)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	80 (28 – -98)
Iran	2309 (2115 – 2487)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	51 (30 – 160)
Iraq	279 (249 – 308)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	10 (7.4 – 18)
Ireland	57 (43 – 70)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1)	-22 (38 – -8.8)
Israel	46 (30 – 59)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 1.8)	6.1 (3.7 – 16)
Italy	527 (475 – 579)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-36 (-470 – -19)
Japan	45 (30 – 56)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	45 (9.2 – -15)
Kazakhstan	387 (345 – 438)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	21 (13 – 54)
Kenya	102 (82 – 120)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	10 (6.3 – 29)
Kosovo	8 (2 – 12)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.4)	-24 (6.7 – -4.2)
Kuwait	879 (794 – 963)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	-3400 (47 – -47)
Kyrgyzstan	54 (37 – 68)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.4)	16 (6.7 – -44)
Latvia	8 (1 – 13)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.6)	150 (3.9 – -4.3)
Lebanon	17 (9 – 24)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-15 (17 – -5.2)
Lithuania	11 (4 – 17)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.4)	-68 (6.1 – -5.3)
Luxembourg	7 (1 – 12)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.7)	-43 (4.4 – -3.7)
Madagascar	42 (29 – 53)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.4)	18 (6.9 – -29)
Malawi	36 (19 – 48)	Increasing	1.8 (1.3 – 2.4)	3.9 (2.5 – 8.7)
Malaysia	81 (60 – 97)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.3)	17 (7.7 – -86)
Maldives	53 (40 – 65)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	17 (7.2 – -45)
Mali	39 (25 – 51)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	15 (6 – -33)
Mauritania	42 (28 – 53)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	12 (5.5 – -92)
Mexico	3289 (3052 – 3534)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (19 – 31)
Moldova	165 (140 – 186)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	74 (17 – -33)
Mongolia	8 (2 – 12)	Unsure	1.2 (0.5 – 2)	54 (3.1 – -3.5)
Morocco	58 (41 – 69)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-15 (420 – -7.6)
Nepal	120 (96 – 141)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.6)	7.2 (5 – 13)
Netherlands	181 (152 – 207)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	65 (18 – -38)
New Zealand	6 (0 – 12)	Likely increasing	1.9 (0.3 – 3.3)	3.9 (1.4 – -4.4)
Niger	9 (0 – 18)	Unsure	1.1 (0.4 – 1.8)	200 (3.4 – -3.5)
Nigeria	332 (298 – 364)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	30 (15 – 340)
North Macedonia	34 (21 – 44)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	22 (6.7 – -16)
Norway	20 (11 – 29)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.4)	24 (5.7 – -10)
Oman	483 (418 – 552)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (9.9 – 23)
Pakistan	2268 (2038 – 2489)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.1)	32 (21 – 62)
Palestine	8 (2 – 14)	Unsure	1.2 (0.6 – 1.9)	29 (3.5 – -4.7)
Panama	357 (315 – 409)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.5)	8.6 (6.6 – 13)
Paraguay	18 (10 – 25)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.7)	13 (4.2 – -13)
Peru	5861 (5227 – 6433)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	15 (13 – 18)
Philippines	497 (411 – 575)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.5)	8 (6.3 – 11)
Poland	397 (352 – 440)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	66 (23 – -77)
Portugal	271 (225 – 304)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	29 (14 – 16000)
Puerto Rico	91 (71 – 106)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	30 (11 – -38)
Qatar	1962 (1793 – 2149)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	24 (18 – 36)
Romania	187 (158 – 212)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	68 (18 – -37)
Russia	9169 (8603 – 9768)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1)	110 (59 – 9500)
Saudi Arabia	2028 (1913 – 2141)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-34 (-60 – -24)
Senegal	82 (66 – 99)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	550 (16 – -16)
Serbia	48 (35 – 60)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-14 (910 – -7)
Sierra Leone	31 (20 – 42)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	40 (7.8 – -13)
Singapore	513 (463 – 569)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	140 (32 – -58)
Slovakia	6 (1 – 12)	Unsure	1.4 (0.5 – 2.2)	7.2 (2.2 – -5.3)
Somalia	45 (33 – 57)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	29 (7.8 – -16)
South Africa	1436 (1295 – 1604)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (12 – 20)
South Korea	42 (28 – 54)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.6)	8.8 (4.7 – 56)
South Sudan	82 (68 – 98)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.6)	7.7 (4.8 – 20)
Spain	701 (621 – 768)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	30 (18 – 91)
Sri Lanka	74 (55 – 89)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.7)	7.4 (4.6 – 18)
Sudan	185 (161 – 208)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-130 (31 – -21)
Sweden	598 (527 – 667)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	28 (17 – 86)
Switzerland	20 (12 – 28)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-28 (11 – -6.2)
Tajikistan	178 (155 – 203)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	430 (22 – -25)
Thailand	9 (3 – 14)	Likely increasing	1.6 (0.8 – 2.4)	4.9 (2.2 – -15)
Tunisia	7 (0 – 11)	Likely increasing	1.7 (0.6 – 2.6)	5.1 (2 – -9)
Turkey	1120 (1017 – 1227)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	140 (32 – -60)
Uganda	33 (23 – 43)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.7)	7.9 (4.1 – 75)
Ukraine	408 (358 – 453)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	61 (22 – -78)
United Arab Emirates	793 (730 – 858)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-230 (65 – -41)
United Kingdom	2437 (2294 – 2573)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	200 (50 – -99)
United Republic of Tanzania	10 (4 – 15)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.4 – 1)	-8.5 (30 – -3.7)
United States of America	22442 (20923 – 24090)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1)	100 (57 – 560)
Uzbekistan	64 (48 – 80)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	68 (11 – -17)
Venezuela	65 (50 – 79)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-70 (19 – -12)
Zambia	33 (21 – 42)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-20 (18 – -6.5)
Zimbabwe	21 (11 – 30)	Increasing	1.8 (1.1 – 2.4)	4.2 (2.5 – 14)